Where sales surged at the start of spring

Weighing in on the season’s high performers, Hotspotting director Terry Ryder shared that property markets that combine affordability, solid economic growth and diversity of housing and unit stock have seen significant uptake.

“Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have been the market leaders for dwelling price growth for the past year or two, and this state of play is set to continue – with increasing pivots to units – as well as minor moderations in property price rises,” he said.

Brisbane picks up the pace

Hotspotting general manager Tim Graham reported that listing volumes in Brisbane have recently returned to healthy territory following a drop in the December 2023 and March 2024 quarters, which cased some market stagnation. But with more new properties coming to market, the Sunshine State capital has seen sales start to take off.

This uplift in activity was attributed to “rising buyer demand for attached dwellings”, which Graham stated now accounts for “over half of sales in the Brisbane City LGA”.

“Our analysis shows that 61 per cent of suburb markets across Greater Brisbane have positive rankings, while only 18 per cent have negative ones and 21 per cent have ‘no clear trend’.”

Within the city of Brisbane, Graham pointed to a recent PropTrack research showcasing annual median increases of 13 per cent and 17 per cent for houses and units respectively, and stated that “44 per cent house markets are rated as rising while 53 per cent of unit markets are rising”.

Greater choice keeps Adelaide moving

After Greater Adelaide’s sales in the June 2024 quarter were the highest since mid-2022, Graham said that South Australia has remained “one of the nation’s growth leaders”.

“Across the Greater Adelaide market, suburbs with positive ratings outnumber those with negative rankings three to one.”

Graham noted that the last quarter’s sales figures represented a “25 per cent increase on the March quarter and was 10 per cent higher than the same time in 2023”, even with listings of homes for sales across Adelaide registering as the lowest in the past 15 years, according to SQM Research data.

He added that “the Greater Adelaide area has standout markets across all price ranges, including affordable municipalities like Playford and Salisbury, middle market areas Marion and West Torrens, and the upmarket Unley and Holdfast LGAs”.

Perth

Over in Western Australia, Graham said the “Perth boom remains strong”, even with unfounded fears that the market is overheated. He added that some buyers – mostly investors from the east coast – have been “buying recklessly” without appropriate due diligence.

Graham noted sales volumes in the city remain elevated, even as a shortage of homes on sale was recently replaced by an influx of listings.

Sales activity has been widespread, with many Perth LGAs reporting high sales volumes, particularly within inner-city markets where Graham said “affordable units dominate the real estate landscape”.

“Some of the cheaper housing markets are a little less buoyant than before, with buyers seeking affordable options switching their focus to units in good locations close to the centre of Perth,” he said.

Strongest regional markets

Ryder highlighted that the recent Hotspotting analysis of sales activity for Queensland markets outside Brisbane showed that 64 per cent of markets reveal positive sales patterns, just 13 per cent have negative rankings, and 23 per cent show no clear trend.

He described these conditions as a “common pattern across most regional Queensland cities and municipalities with roughly two-thirds of locations having positive classifications of rising, recovery or consistent, and a minor percentage having negative ones of plateau or declining”.

“This is true for the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Toowoomba, Rockhampton, Mackay, Gladstone, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Townsville and Cairns – all of which have busy or, in some cases, frenzied property markets,” said Ryder.

Down south, the director called regional South Australia the “outperformer that flies under the radar screen of news media and most investors”.

“Current sales levels in regional SA are the highest since the 2021 peak and most of the key regional centres are ranked as rising or consistent,” he said.

He also noted that the number of locations in regional South Australia has increased, and now outnumber negative locations three to one.

“While the regional centres which have been SA mainstays continue to deliver consistent performance – including Mount Gambier, Murray Bridge, Victor Harbor and Port Lincoln – the real stars in 2024 are the Iron Triangle towns of Whyalla, Port Pirie and Port August.”

Weakest capital city markets

On the other end of the property spectrum, Graham stated that the lowest performing markets have stagnated as a result of varying factors, such as Hobart suffering from sluggish median price performance and Melbourne’s new property laws and taxes affecting buyer sentiment.

Ryder reported that Hobart is currently the weakest performer by house price growth among the state and territory capital cities, with CoreLogic’s research revealing the city as the only market with a median house price lower than one year ago.

While the director acknowledged that “there are more signs of life in the Hobart market” compared to three months prior, he described the progress as “well short of the bustling environment evident elsewhere in Australia”.

“Sales volumes in the Greater Hobart area improved in the June quarter, compared to three months earlier, but remain at similar levels as the same time last year – and still well below the peaks in 2020 and 2021, when Hobart was a national leader on sales activity and price growth”.

Over in Melbourne, Ryder stated that price growth data shows that it has continued to stagnate compared to other markets as a result of the “anaemic market that has prevailed there over the past two years and still persists”.

“In the most buoyant markets of Australia, over 60 per cent of locations have positive rankings (rising, recovery or consistent), but across Melbourne it’s 46 per cent,” he said.

Even with an improvement in sales volumes in the latest quarter, the director noted that “one-third of locations have ‘no clear trend’ classifications, which means that the sales activity is not strong”.

“There are some positive sectors, notably outer-ring houses and near-city units, but overall Melbourne is an underachiever, not helped by the Victoria state government’s hostility to investors,” said Ryder.