Migration between capital cities cools to pre-pandemic levels

The mass move into the “garden city” comes as cost-of-living pressures have hit particularly hard in Sydney and Brisbane, with the latter city reporting a 13 per cent decline in migration so far this year.

Stating that interstate moving numbers have declined by roughly 20 per cent since this time last year, Muval highlighted that “higher interest rates, tight housing affordability and housing shortages are having a cooling effect on moving generally”.

Melbourne

Over the first half of 2024, Muval detailed that Melbourne recorded a rise in arrivals (30 per cent of all major moves going to Melbourne in February and April 2024) and a fall in outbound moves (receiving just 25 per cent of all outbound metro moves in February – the city’s lowest result on record).

The city reported positive net migration of 13 per cent in February and 2 per cent in April, its first positive migration since the 3 per cent result recorded in January 2022.

It also represents a marked increase on the city’s performance in the pandemic, where net migration fell to as low as -61 per cent in August 2020 and -64 per cent in September 2021.

Highlighting that Brisbane and Sydney’s outbound enquiries spiked when Melbourne’s veered down, Muval suggested that traffic could now be “flowing down from the increasingly expensive northern states”.

Brisbane

With the city’s house prices increasing by over 60 per cent since the COVID-19 pandemic, and unit rentals rising by more than 50 per cent, Muval stated that the rise in the cost of living is impacting the city’s appeal.

As a result, Brisbane’s outbound moving enquiries increased to their highest level, comprising 23 per cent of all major metro outbound moves in April 2024.

Averaging 22 per cent of inbound metro moves in the first half of the year, Muval detailed that Brisbane declined to just 20 per cent in January and February of 2024.

Following the city’s peak positive net migration of 123 per cent in September 2021, Brisbane stayed around the zero mark in the first six months of 2024, plummeting to a record low of -13 per cent in April.

Even with the city remaining the second most popular city to move to behind Melbourne, Muval expressed that “Brisbane’s pandemic popularity has been replaced with an air of unaffordability”.

Sydney

The city reported a moderate increase in inbound traffic over the first six months of 2024, comprising as much as 19 per cent of all major metro inbound moves in January and June this year (the highest number on record for Sydney).

With the city registering as the third most popular city to move to, the company stated that this was a “change from last year when Perth was third behind Melbourne and Brisbane”.

Notably, Muval raised that the average of 30 per cent of all major outbound moves coming from Sydney over the first six months of 2024 resulted in the city being home to the “biggest resident exodus” of the period.

Despite the slight increase in arrivals, Muval relayed that Sydney’s outbound movement has kept the city firmly in negative net migration, ranging from -41 per cent and -52 per cent over the first half of 2024.

Perth

Even with the city home to the highest positive net migration in the country, Muval detailed that the country is “spiralling fast to pre-pandemic levels as interest in the state tapers off”.

Following the city’s peak positive net migration of 181 per cent at the time of the pandemic in 2021, Muval said the city hasn’t consistently achieved double-digit outbound traffic since the start of 2020, with the city recording positive migration of 7–9 per cent in 2022 and 2023.

In the year to date, Muval relayed that net migration dropped to 10 per cent in June, with the city recording inbound traffic of 14 per cent and high outbound traffic of 12 per cent over the first half of 2024.

With Perth recording the highest annual rent increase of the capital cities (up 14 per cent year-on-year), and the highest rise in rent values (up 60 per cent year-on-year), the company expressed that these conditions could be to blame for the city’s stall in growth.

Adelaide

Following the city’s growth of around 9–10 per cent in 2023, Muval noted that Adelaide’s outbound migration growth has gradually slowed in the first half of the year, decreasing to a low of 7 per cent in April before staying at 8 per cent in May and June.

Inbound traffic has not elevated this year, with the 7 per cent recorded across April and May marking Adelaide’s lowest share of inbound major metro moves on record.

After dipping into negative territory in August 2022, the city has remained in negative net migration throughout 2024, reporting results between -7 per cent in June and -23 per cent over February and May.