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Junior sales associates used to be taught that properties moved to a rhythm through the calendar year: dates and periods when listings would pick up and buyers were more likely engaged.
In 2023, the calendar might as well be binned.
The traditional spring selling season — when gardens bloom and daylight creeps longer into the evening — spluttered by. By the middle of October, cash rate increases had added almost $9,000 in yearly repayments to a $500,000 mortgage compared to six months earlier. Rising repayments led to fewer new listings in spring compared to winter — the first time that’s happened in more than a decade, according to CoreLogic. The fact that interest rates over spring were still lower than pre-COVID-19 levels didn’t resonate with the market. A year earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said the near-zero cash rate would be around until 2024, driving market competition.
When that forecast changed, buyers and sellers were spooked.
And if you were selling a property over spring that needed substantial work, finding tradespeople and materials at an affordable price has been problematic. Buyers were turned off by the prospect of waiting a year before they could redo the kitchen or put a second bathroom in.
Along with spring, auctions have been popular in late January — when everyone has finished their holidays and is back in real estate mode — while selling in May and June can resonate with investors who need to settle before the new financial year.
But those rhythms have petered out. Over 2023, the variables that grip the economy — interest rates, cost-of-living pressures, floods and supply chain disruptions — will have a greater influence on buyers and sellers than sunny weather or a date on a calendar.
Everyone’s personal situations will be different over 2023: there’ll be people coming off fixed-interest rates with not enough equity to refinance, there could be investors looking for the right time to act, employees who tried remote working but want to return to the HQ for career growth, and more.
Over the last two years, agents will have filled their databases with people who wanted to upgrade, downsize, or invest but weren’t able to amid the COVID-19-driven competition.
Returning to work this month, agents should be going through their databases, revisiting OFIs and appraisals they conducted 12 and 18 months ago and re-engaging with those people who never converted.
This year could very well be unpredictable in terms of when listings will spike: it might be the day after the RBA ends its upward cash rate cycle, it might be when the Ukraine conflict ends, or we may even have to wait until 2024.
How successful 2023 will be for sales agents will be determined by the conversations they’ll have with sellers and buyers: understanding their personal situations, helping them reflect on their own objectives and, ultimately, assisting them in making a decision, which is a long-term play, anyway.
For the first time in a long time, agents can move to their own rhythm.
David Holmes is an auctioneer and the managing director of holmes.
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